🏎️ A Data-Driven Passion: Predicting the F1 2024 Champion 📊🚀
- Matias Rossi
- Dec 11, 2024
- 4 min read
If you know me, you know how much I love Formula 1—the speed, the strategy, the precision! So when an Italian motorsport journalist reached out on LinkedIn with a unique project, I couldn’t resist. He asked if I could calculate the probabilities of Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, or Charles Leclerc winning the 2024 Drivers’ Championship—with only 6 races left!
At first, I thought, How on earth am I going to do this? Probabilities and simulations weren’t my strongest areas, but with help from ChatGPT, YouTube tutorials, and a lot of determination, I took on the challenge. Over two intense weeks, I built a comprehensive analysis, learned new techniques like Monte Carlo simulations, and designed a professional-grade report that I’m incredibly proud of. This wasn’t just a project—it was a career-defining moment.
📎 Explore the Project
If you’re curious to dive deeper:
Read the article: https://www.funoanalisitecnica.com/2024/10/f1-verstappen-vince-titolo.html
Download the project files: F1 2024 Championship Probabilities.
View the full report on Canva: PDF Report Here
💡 The Process: Exploring Two Scenarios
One of the most fascinating aspects of this project was choosing to analyze two scenarios. Why? By the time I started the project, McLaren had shown a remarkable rise in performance during the last 8 races. With Lando Norris delivering consistent results, I thought it would be interesting to see what would happen if that trend continued across the remaining season.
So, I ran simulations for:1️⃣ Full season results, reflecting Verstappen’s dominance throughout the year.2️⃣ Last 8 races results, capturing McLaren’s upward momentum to explore what might happen if that trend extended through the final races.
This approach allowed me to contrast Verstappen’s season-long consistency with Norris’ recent peak and assess how the championship could unfold under both scenarios.
📈 How I Did It: Combining Analysis & Visualization
Data Preparation in Excel
The analysis began with preparing the race data in Excel. I used functions like RAND, IF, and VLOOKUP to calculate probabilities for each driver in both scenarios. From there, I automated the process using Excel Macros, enabling me to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario—capturing every possible outcome in the remaining 6 races.
Key Results
1️⃣ Full Season Results:
Verstappen wins the championship in 100% of simulations 🏆.
He secures the majority of points in 71-72% of cases, while Norris manages this only 23-24% of the time. Neither Norris nor Leclerc had any chance of clinching the title.
2️⃣ Last 8 Races Results:
Norris improves dramatically, securing the most points in 76-77% of simulations 🚀. However, his championship chances only increase by 1-2%.
Leclerc wins the most points 20% of the time, while Verstappen’s dominance in this area drops by 5%, but he still wins the championship in 98-99% of simulations.
The average points gap between Norris and Verstappen in this scenario was 30-31 points at the end of the season.
Data Visualization with Canva
Once the analysis was complete, I turned my attention to presenting the findings. Using Canva, I created a visually stunning report that combined clarity and creativity. My experience with Canva dates back to managing the Instagram page for my fitness center, where I designed posts in a sleek gold, white, and black aesthetic. This project was a chance to bring those skills into the professional world, crafting a report that could easily pass as a feature in an international motorsport magazine.
🎯 Why This Project Matters
This project was a turning point in my career as a data analyst, allowing me to:
Gain hands-on experience with Monte Carlo simulations and probability modeling.
Automate complex processes with Excel Macros.
Combine technical insights with data visualization to tell a compelling story.
Develop professional-grade reports using Canva, showcasing findings in an engaging, impactful way.
These skills are critical for transforming raw data into actionable insights—whether it’s for sports, business, or any industry.
🏆 The Outcome
The results? Spot on! Max Verstappen clinched the championship a race before the finale, just as my analysis predicted 🎉. And let me tell you, that was a huge relief—I joked that if I had been wrong, I’d have retired from probabilities for good! 😅
As a cherry on top, the report was published in an Italian motorsport magazine (yes, it’s in Italian, so grab Google Translate if needed! 🇮🇹). Seeing my work recognized like this was a proud moment and a milestone for my career.
💬 Final Thoughts
This project wasn’t just about predicting F1 results—it was about growth, learning, and pushing my limits. From exploring new techniques to showcasing the findings in a visually compelling way, this experience reinforced my passion for data analysis, visualization, and creating insights that matter.
Let’s connect if you’d like to discuss how data can drive smarter decisions, whether in sports, business, or beyond! 🚀
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